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Today, immigration attorneys, policy analysts and employers say that pathway has become less predictable. While recent reforms have made the H-1B lottery more orderly, long employment-based green card backlogs, country-based caps and evolving immigration polic... Today, immigration attorneys, policy analysts and employers say that pathway has become less predictable. While recent reforms have made the H-1B lottery more orderly, long employment-based green card backlogs, country-based caps and evolving immigration policies have introduced uncertainty into the transition from temporary status to permanent residency.The June 2026 Visa Bulletin highlights the extent of the backlog. For Indian applicants, the employment-based second preference (EB-2) category was processing cases with a final action date of September 1, 2013, while the employment-based third preference (EB-3) category was processing cases with a final action date of December 15, 2013, according to the US Department of State. The shift is particularly significant for Indian professionals, who make up the largest share of H-1B visa holders and face some of the longest waits for permanent residency.Also Read| US Visa Bulletin June 2026: Green card backlog worsens Getting in has become a lottery The first challenge now begins before a foreign professional even starts working.According to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), employers submitted 343,981 eligible registrations covering 336,153 unique beneficiaries during the FY2026 H-1B cap season. USCIS selected 118,660 beneficiaries, resulting in a selection rate of about 35.3%, according to USCIS data.The figures marked a significant decline from FY2025, when USCIS received more than 470,000 eligible registrations. The drop followed the agency's move to a beneficiary-centric selection process aimed at reducing duplicate registrations and abuse of the system.The numbers show that demand for H-1B visas continues to exceed supply, with more than 343,000 eligible registrations competing for 85,000 available visas. However, they also suggest that the lottery has become less crowded and more predictable than during the surge years of 2023 and 2024.Even with improved selection odds in FY2026, employers still face uncertainty because demand continues to far exceed available visas. USCIS received 343,981 eligible registrations against an annual cap of 85,000 visas, meaning many qualified candidates were not selected despite having job offers. When merit meets probability For international students graduating from US universities, lottery selection remains an important hurdle. The latest Open Doors 2025 report shows that 363,019 Indian students were enrolled at US colleges and universities in the 2024–25 academic year, up 9.5% from 331,602 a year earlier. Indian students accounted for 30.8% of all international students in the US and remained the largest international student group. The pathway into the United States may have become somewhat more predictable. The pathway to permanent residency has not. Immigration lawyers increasingly argue that the larger challenge now begins after workers secure an H-1B visa.Uncertainty increasingly extends beyond visa availability and into processing timelines. "Applicants are, in effect, paying a surcharge to receive the timely service the agency should be providing as a matter of routine," Khanna said. "It has become a tax on urgency, and that urgency is